Florida 42026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Florida 4th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Florida's 4th congressional district House election between Democrat TBD and Republican Aaron Bean. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Florida 4th District House election features Democrat TBD and Republican Aaron Bean. Incumbent Representative Aaron Bean is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Florida's 4th congressional district by 18.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- FL-4
- Democratic candidate
- TBD
- Republican candidate
- Aaron Bean
- Incumbent / open seat
- Aaron Bean
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 40.0% D / 60.0% R
- Projected margin
- R +20.0
- Forecast odds
- 1.5% D / 98.5% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —