Florida 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 4th District House forecast currently gives Republican Aaron Bean a 98.9% chance of defeating Democrat LaShonda Holloway. Pollsmax projects Bean to receive 60% of the vote compared with 40.1% for Holloway, a projected Republican margin of 19.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 4th District House election features Democrat LaShonda Holloway and Republican Aaron Bean. Incumbent Representative Aaron Bean is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Florida's 4th congressional district by 18.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.