Ohio 122026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Ohio 12th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Ohio 12th District House forecast currently gives Republican Troy Balderson a 99.2% chance of defeating Democrat Jerrad Christian. Pollsmax projects Balderson to receive 62.1% of the vote compared with 38% for Christian, a projected Republican margin of 24.1 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Ohio 12th District House election features Democrat Jerrad Christian and Republican Troy Balderson. Incumbent Representative Troy Balderson is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Ohio's 12th congressional district by 8.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Ohio conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.