Ohio12th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Ohio 12th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Ohio's 12th congressional district House election between Democrat Jerrad Christian and Republican Troy Balderson. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Ohio 12th District House election features Democrat Jerrad Christian and Republican Troy Balderson. Incumbent Representative Troy Balderson is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Ohio's 12th congressional district by 8.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Ohio conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- OH-12
- Democratic candidate
- Jerrad Christian
- Republican candidate
- Troy Balderson
- Incumbent / open seat
- Troy Balderson
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 37.9% D / 62.1% R
- Projected margin
- R +24.2
- Forecast odds
- 0.7% D / 99.3% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —