John Larson*
DEMOCRATIC
US House of Representatives (D-CT)
1999 – Present
Connecticut1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Amy Chai
REPUBLICAN
Doctor
2026 Connecticut 1st District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Connecticut's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat John Larson and Republican Amy Chai. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Connecticut 1st District House election features Democrat John Larson and Republican Amy Chai. Incumbent Representative John Larson is seeking reelection to a fifteenth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Connecticut's 1st congressional district by 10.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- CT-1
- Democratic candidate
- John Larson
- Republican candidate
- Amy Chai
- Incumbent / open seat
- John Larson
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 66.8% D / 33.3% R
- Projected margin
- D +33.5
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —