Connecticut 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Connecticut 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Connecticut 1st District House forecast currently gives Democrat John Larson a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Amy Chai. Pollsmax projects Larson to receive 66.8% of the vote compared with 33.2% for Chai, a projected Democratic margin of 33.6 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Connecticut 1st District House election features Democrat John Larson and Republican Amy Chai. Incumbent Representative John Larson is seeking reelection to a fifteenth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Connecticut's 1st congressional district by 10.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.