Arizona 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Arizona 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Arizona 1st District House forecast currently gives Democrat Amish Shah a 53.9% chance of defeating Republican Jay Feely. Pollsmax projects Shah to receive 50.2% of the vote compared with 49.9% for Feely, a projected Democratic margin of 0.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Arizona 1st District House election features Democrat Amish Shah and Republican Jay Feely. The seat is open in 2026, giving both parties a chance to win the district's representation in the lower chamber of Congress. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arizona's 1st congressional district by 3.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as tilt Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Arizona seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Arizona's 1st District will be critical in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.