Texas 282026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 28th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 28th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Henry Cuellar a 80.1% chance of defeating Republican Tano Tijerina. Pollsmax projects Cuellar to receive 52.5% of the vote compared with 47.5% for Tijerina, a projected Democratic margin of 5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 28th District House election features Democrat Henry Cuellar and Republican Tano Tijerina. Incumbent Representative Henry Cuellar is seeking reelection to a twelfth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Texas' 28th congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Democratic in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.