Texas28th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Texas 28th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Texas's 28th congressional district House election between Democrat Henry Cuellar and Republican Tano Tijerina. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Texas 28th District House election features Democrat Henry Cuellar and Republican Tano Tijerina. Incumbent Representative Henry Cuellar is seeking reelection to a twelfth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Texas' 28th congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Democratic in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- TX-28
- Democratic candidate
- Henry Cuellar
- Republican candidate
- Tano Tijerina
- Incumbent / open seat
- Henry Cuellar
- Forecast rating
- Likely D
- Projected vote
- 57.2% D / 42.9% R
- Projected margin
- D +14.3
- Forecast odds
- 93.3% D / 6.7% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —