Texas 282026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 28th District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Texas's 28th congressional district House election between Democrat Henry Cuellar and Republican Tano Tijerina. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 Texas 28th District House election features Democrat Henry Cuellar and Republican Tano Tijerina. Incumbent Representative Henry Cuellar is seeking reelection to a twelfth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Texas' 28th congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Texas seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Texas' 28th District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.