Alaska AL2026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Alaska At-Large District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Alaska At-Large District House forecast currently gives Republican Nick Begich III a 93.3% chance of defeating independent Bill Hill. Pollsmax projects Begich to receive 54.8% of the vote compared with 45.3% for Hill, a projected Republican margin of 9.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Alaska at-large District House election features independent Bill Hill and Republican Nick Begich III. Incumbent Representative Nick Begich III is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Alaska's at-large congressional district by 10.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026.