Mary Gay Scanlon*
DEMOCRATIC
US House of Representatives (D-PA)
2018 – Present
Pennsylvania5th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Nicholas Manganaro
REPUBLICAN
Financial Professional
2026 Pennsylvania 5th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Pennsylvania's 5th congressional district House election between Democrat Mary Gay Scanlon and Republican Nicholas Manganaro. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Pennsylvania 5th District House election features Democrat Mary Gay Scanlon and Republican Nicholas Manganaro. Incumbent Representative Mary Gay Scanlon is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Pennsylvania's 5th congressional district by 11.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- PA-5
- Democratic candidate
- Mary Gay Scanlon
- Republican candidate
- Nicholas Manganaro
- Incumbent / open seat
- Mary Gay Scanlon
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 67.1% D / 32.9% R
- Projected margin
- D +34.2
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —