Pennsylvania 52026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Pennsylvania 5th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Pennsylvania 5th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Mary Gay Scanlon a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Nicholas Manganaro. Pollsmax projects Scanlon to receive 67.2% of the vote compared with 32.8% for Manganaro, a projected Democratic margin of 34.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Pennsylvania 5th District House election features Democrat Mary Gay Scanlon and Republican Nicholas Manganaro. Incumbent Representative Mary Gay Scanlon is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Pennsylvania's 5th congressional district by 11.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.