Elizabeth Lee
DEMOCRATIC
—
Arizona 52026 HOUSE FORECAST
Mark Lamb
REPUBLICAN
2026 Arizona 5th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Arizona's 5th congressional district House election between Democrat Elizabeth Lee and Republican Mark Lamb. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Arizona 5th District House election features Democrat Elizabeth Lee and Republican Mark Lamb. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arizona's 5th congressional district by 16.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- AZ-5
- Democratic candidate
- Elizabeth Lee
- Republican candidate
- Mark Lamb
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open seat
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 40.0% D / 60.0% R
- Projected margin
- R +20.0
- Forecast odds
- 1.3% D / 98.7% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on August 16, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —