Arizona 52026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Arizona 5th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Arizona 5th District House forecast currently gives Republican Mark Lamb a 99.2% chance of defeating Democrat Elizabeth Lee. Pollsmax projects Lamb to receive 57.9% of the vote compared with 42.2% for Lee, a projected Republican margin of 15.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Arizona 5th District House election features Democrat Elizabeth Lee and Republican Mark Lamb. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arizona's 5th congressional district by 16.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.