California 242026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 24th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 24th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Salud Carbajal a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Bob Smith. Pollsmax projects Carbajal to receive 68.8% of the vote compared with 31.3% for Smith, a projected Democratic margin of 37.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 24th District House election features Democrat Salud Carbajal and Republican Bob Smith. Incumbent Representative Salud Carbajal is seeking reelection to a sixth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 24th congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.