California10th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 California 10th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for California's 10th congressional district House election between Democrat Mark DeSaulnier and Republican Jeff Frese. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 California 10th District House election features Democrat Mark DeSaulnier and Republican Jeff Frese. Incumbent Representative Mark DeSaulnier is seeking reelection to a seventh term. In 2024, Donald Trump won California's 10th congressional district by 1.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- CA-10
- Democratic candidate
- Mark DeSaulnier
- Republican candidate
- Jeff Frese
- Incumbent / open seat
- Mark DeSaulnier
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 67.4% D / 32.7% R
- Projected margin
- D +34.7
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —