California 102026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 10th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 10th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Mark DeSaulnier a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Jeff Frese. Pollsmax projects DeSaulnier to receive 65.5% of the vote compared with 34.6% for Frese, a projected Democratic margin of 30.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 10th District House election features Democrat Mark DeSaulnier and Republican Jeff Frese. Incumbent Representative Mark DeSaulnier is seeking reelection to a seventh term. In 2024, Donald Trump won California's 10th congressional district by 1.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.