Texas 372026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 37th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 37th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Greg Casar a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Lauren Peña. Pollsmax projects Casar to receive 75.8% of the vote compared with 24.3% for Peña, a projected Democratic margin of 51.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 37th District House election features Democrat Greg Casar and Republican Lauren Peña. Incumbent Representative Greg Casar is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 37th congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.