Texas37th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Texas 37th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Texas's 37th congressional district House election between Democrat Greg Casar and Republican Lauren Peña. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Texas 37th District House election features Democrat Greg Casar and Republican Lauren Peña. Incumbent Representative Greg Casar is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 37th congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- TX-37
- Democratic candidate
- Greg Casar
- Republican candidate
- Lauren Peña
- Incumbent / open seat
- Greg Casar
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 70.0% D / 30.0% R
- Projected margin
- D +40.0
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —