Texas1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Texas 1st District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Texas's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat Yolanda Prince and Republican Nathaniel Moran. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Texas 1st District House election features Democrat Yolanda Prince and Republican Nathaniel Moran. Incumbent Representative Nathaniel Moran is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 1st congressional district by 26.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- TX-1
- Democratic candidate
- Yolanda Prince
- Republican candidate
- Nathaniel Moran
- Incumbent / open seat
- Nathaniel Moran
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 30.2% D / 69.8% R
- Projected margin
- R +39.6
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —