Texas 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Nathaniel Moran a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Yolanda Prince. Pollsmax projects Moran to receive 69.9% of the vote compared with 30.1% for Prince, a projected Republican margin of 39.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 1st District House election features Democrat Yolanda Prince and Republican Nathaniel Moran. Incumbent Representative Nathaniel Moran is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 1st congressional district by 26.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.