Texas 302026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 30th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 30th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Frederick Haynes III a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Everett Jackson. Pollsmax projects Haynes to receive 81.9% of the vote compared with 18.2% for Jackson, a projected Democratic margin of 63.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 30th District House election features Democrat Frederick Haynes III and Republican Everett Jackson. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Texas' 30th congressional district by 27.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.