California46th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 California 46th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for California's 46th congressional district House election between Democrat Lou Correa and Republican David Pan. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 California 46th District House election features Democrat Lou Correa and Republican David Pan. Incumbent Representative Lou Correa is seeking reelection to a sixth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 46th congressional district by 13.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- CA-46
- Democratic candidate
- Lou Correa
- Republican candidate
- David Pan
- Incumbent / open seat
- Lou Correa
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 64.7% D / 35.3% R
- Projected margin
- D +29.4
- Forecast odds
- 99.8% D / 0.2% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —