California 462026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 46th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 46th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Lou Correa a 99.8% chance of defeating Republican David Pan. Pollsmax projects Correa to receive 64.8% of the vote compared with 35.3% for Pan, a projected Democratic margin of 29.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 46th District House election features Democrat Lou Correa and Republican David Pan. Incumbent Representative Lou Correa is seeking reelection to a sixth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 46th congressional district by 13.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.