North Carolina 32026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 North Carolina 3rd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 North Carolina 3rd District House forecast currently gives Republican Greg Murphy a 90.2% chance of defeating Democrat Raymond Smith Jr. Pollsmax projects Murphy to receive 55.8% of the vote compared with 44.2% for Smith, a projected Republican margin of 11.6 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 North Carolina 3rd District House election features Democrat Raymond Smith Jr and Republican Greg Murphy. Incumbent Representative Greg Murphy is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won North Carolina's 3rd congressional district by 13.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. North Carolina conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.