North Carolina3rd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 North Carolina 3rd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for North Carolina's 3rd congressional district House election between Democrat Raymond Smith Jr and Republican Greg Murphy. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 North Carolina 3rd District House election features Democrat Raymond Smith Jr and Republican Greg Murphy. Incumbent Representative Greg Murphy is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won North Carolina's 3rd congressional district by 13.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. North Carolina conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- NC-3
- Democratic candidate
- Raymond Smith Jr
- Republican candidate
- Greg Murphy
- Incumbent / open seat
- Greg Murphy
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 43.8% D / 56.2% R
- Projected margin
- R +12.4
- Forecast odds
- 9.0% D / 91.0% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —