Florida 272026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 27th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 27th District House forecast currently gives Republican Maria Elvira Salazar a 83.3% chance of defeating Democrat Eliott Rodriguez. Pollsmax projects Salazar to receive 53.4% of the vote compared with 46.6% for Rodriguez, a projected Republican margin of 6.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 27th District House election features Democrat Eliott Rodriguez and Republican Maria Elvira Salazar. Incumbent Representative Maria Elvira Salazar is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Florida's 27th congressional district by 3.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.