Florida 272026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 27th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 27th District House forecast currently gives Republican Maria Elvira Salazar a 76.1% chance of defeating Democrat Eliott Rodriguez. Pollsmax projects Salazar to receive 52.4% of the vote compared with 47.7% for Rodriguez, a projected Republican margin of 4.7 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 27th District House election features Democrat Eliott Rodriguez and Republican Maria Elvira Salazar. Incumbent Representative Maria Elvira Salazar is seeking reelection to a fourth term. This race is rated as lean Republican. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Florida seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Florida's 27th District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.