Kansas 42026 HOUSE POLLS
2026 Kansas 4th District House Forecast:
The Pollsmax 2026 Kansas 4th District House forecast currently gives Republican Ron Estes a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Katy Tyndell. Pollsmax projects Estes to receive 66.2% of the vote compared with 33.8% for Tyndell, a projected Republican margin of 32.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.
The 2026 Kansas 4th District House election features Democrat Katy Tyndell and Republican Ron Estes. Incumbent Representative Ron Estes is seeking reelection to a sixth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Kansas' 4th congressional district by 16.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- KS-4
- Democratic candidate
- Katy Tyndell
- Republican candidate
- Ron Estes
- Incumbent / open seat
- Ron Estes
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 33.8% D / 66.2% R
- Projected margin
- R +32.4
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on September 30, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
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- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
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