Democrats
DEMOCRATIC
—
Kansas 42026 HOUSE FORECAST
Ron Estes*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-KS)
2017 – Present
2026 Kansas 4th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Kansas's 4th congressional district House election between Democrat TBD and Republican Ron Estes. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Kansas 4th District House election features Democrat TBD and Republican Ron Estes. Incumbent Representative Ron Estes is seeking reelection to a sixth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Kansas' 4th congressional district by 16.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- KS-4
- Democratic candidate
- TBD
- Republican candidate
- Ron Estes
- Incumbent / open seat
- Ron Estes
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 33.7% D / 66.3% R
- Projected margin
- R +32.6
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
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