Oklahoma 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Oklahoma 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Oklahoma 4th District House forecast currently gives Republican Tom Cole a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Mitchell Jacob. Pollsmax projects Cole to receive 74.7% of the vote compared with 25.4% for Jacob, a projected Republican margin of 49.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Oklahoma 4th District House election features Democrat Mitchell Jacob and Republican Tom Cole. Incumbent Representative Tom Cole is seeking reelection to a thirteenth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Oklahoma's 4th congressional district by 21.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.