Mitchell Jacob
DEMOCRATIC
—
Oklahoma4th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Tom Cole*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-OK)
2003 – Present
2026 Oklahoma 4th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Oklahoma's 4th congressional district House election between Democrat Mitchell Jacob and Republican Tom Cole. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Oklahoma 4th District House election features Democrat Mitchell Jacob and Republican Tom Cole. Incumbent Representative Tom Cole is seeking reelection to a thirteenth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Oklahoma's 4th congressional district by 21.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- OK-4
- Democratic candidate
- Mitchell Jacob
- Republican candidate
- Tom Cole
- Incumbent / open seat
- Tom Cole
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 29.9% D / 70.1% R
- Projected margin
- R +40.2
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
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