Florida 52026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Florida 5th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Florida's 5th congressional district House election between Democrat TBD and Republican John Rutherford. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Florida 5th District House election features Democrat TBD and Republican John Rutherford. Incumbent Representative John Rutherford is seeking reelection to a sixth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Florida's 5th congressional district by 10.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- FL-5
- Democratic candidate
- TBD
- Republican candidate
- John Rutherford
- Incumbent / open seat
- John Rutherford
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 43.2% D / 56.8% R
- Projected margin
- R +13.6
- Forecast odds
- 7.6% D / 92.4% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —