Florida 52026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 5th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 5th District House forecast currently gives Republican John Rutherford a 98.9% chance of defeating Democrat Rachel Grage. Pollsmax projects Rutherford to receive 57.5% of the vote compared with 42.5% for Grage, a projected Republican margin of 15 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 5th District House election features Democrat Rachel Grage and Republican John Rutherford. Incumbent Representative John Rutherford is seeking reelection to a sixth term. This race is rated as solid Republican. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.