Florida 52026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 5th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 5th District House forecast currently gives Republican John Rutherford a 92.2% chance of defeating Democrat Rachel Grage. Pollsmax projects Rutherford to receive 56.6% of the vote compared with 43.5% for Grage, a projected Republican margin of 13.1 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 5th District House election features Democrat Rachel Grage and Republican John Rutherford. Incumbent Representative John Rutherford is seeking reelection to a sixth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Florida's 5th congressional district by 10.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.