Brian Miller
DEMOCRATIC
Attorney
Montana2nd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Troy Downing*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-MT)
2025 – Present
2026 Montana 2nd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Montana's 2nd congressional district House election between Democrat Brian Miller and Republican Troy Downing. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Montana 2nd District House election features Democrat Brian Miller and Republican Troy Downing. Incumbent Representative Troy Downing is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Montana's 2nd congressional district by 11.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- MT-2
- Democratic candidate
- Brian Miller
- Republican candidate
- Troy Downing
- Incumbent / open seat
- Troy Downing
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 34.9% D / 65.1% R
- Projected margin
- R +30.2
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —