Texas 352026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 35th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 35th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Johnny Garcia a 68.9% chance of defeating Republican Carlos De La Cruz. Pollsmax projects Garcia to receive 51.1% of the vote compared with 48.9% for Cruz, a projected Democratic margin of 2.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 35th District House election features Democrat Johnny Garcia and Republican Carlos De La Cruz. The seat is open in 2026, giving both parties a chance to win the district's representation in the lower chamber of Congress. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Texas' 35th congressional district by 13.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Texas seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Texas' 35th District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.