California 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

Steve Hilton

REPUBLICAN

Director of Strategy to the Prime Minister (UK)

2010 — 2012

2026 California Governor Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for California's Governor election between Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 California governor election features Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California by 20.1%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. California has leaned Democratic in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can still draw national attention when control of the governorship is at stake.

Year: 2026
Race: Governor
State: California
Democratic candidate: Xavier Becerra
Republican candidate: Steve Hilton
Incumbent / open seat: Open Seat
Forecast rating: Solid D
Projected vote: 65.3% D / 34.7% R
Projected margin: D +30.6
Forecast odds: 99.2% D / 0.8% R
Forecast last updated: 12:00 AM on August 4, 2026
Polling average: 59.5% D / 34.3% R
Polling average margin: D +25.2
Polling last updated: 12:00 AM on August 5, 2026
Polls included: 3
Latest poll: Public Policy Institute of California — July 6, 2026