California 2026 GOVERNOR FORECAST

2026 California Governor Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California Governor forecast currently gives Democrat Xavier Becerra a 99.6% chance of defeating Republican Steve Hilton. Pollsmax projects Becerra to receive 65.3% of the vote compared with 34.7% for Hilton, a projected Democratic margin of 30.6 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California governor election features Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton. The governorship is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California by 20.1%, and Democrats are expected to easily retain the state's governorship in 2026. California has leaned Democratic in recent statewide elections, but open-seat races can still draw national attention when control of the governorship is at stake.