New Hampshire 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 New Hampshire Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New Hampshire Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Chris Pappas a 87.9% chance of defeating Republican John Sununu. Pollsmax projects Pappas to receive 53.9% of the vote compared with 46.1% for Sununu, a projected Democratic margin of 7.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New Hampshire Senate election features Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John Sununu. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New Hampshire, and Democrats are favored to retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. The race will test whether Pappas can keep New Hampshire's Senate seat blue after Jeanne Shaheen's retirement or whether Sununu can revive the GOP brand in a state with a long history of competitive federal races. New Hampshire's Senate forecast and Senate polls will be closely watched because the race could play a major role in determining control of the US Senate.