New Hampshire 2026 SENATE FORECAST

2026 New Hampshire Senate Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New Hampshire Senate forecast currently gives Democrat Chris Pappas a 80.7% chance of defeating Republican John Sununu. Pollsmax projects Pappas to receive 52.9% of the vote compared with 47.1% for Sununu, a projected Democratic margin of 5.8 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New Hampshire Senate election features Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John Sununu. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New Hampshire by 2.8%, and Democrats are expected to retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. New Hampshire's mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters makes the statewide margin especially important in a competitive Senate race.