Chris Pappas, 2026 New Hampshire Senate Democratic candidate
Chris Pappas
DEMOCRATIC
US House of Representatives (D-NH)
2019 – Present
New Hampshire state flag

New Hampshire 2026 SENATE FORECAST

John Sununu, 2026 New Hampshire Senate Republican candidate
John Sununu
REPUBLICAN
US Senate (R-NH)
2003 – 2009

2026 New Hampshire Senate Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for New Hampshire's Senate election between Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John Sununu. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.

The 2026 New Hampshire Senate election features Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John Sununu. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New Hampshire by 2.8%, and Democrats are expected to retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. New Hampshire's mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters makes the statewide margin especially important in a competitive Senate race.

Year
2026
Race
Senate
State
New Hampshire
Democratic candidate
Chris Pappas
Republican candidate
John Sununu
Incumbent / open seat
Open Seat
Forecast rating
Likely D
Projected vote
53.0% D / 47.1% R
Projected margin
D +5.9
Forecast odds
81.4% D / 18.6% R
Forecast last updated
12:00 AM on August 4, 2026
Polling average
46.7% D / 41.2% R
Polling average margin
D +5.4
Polling last updated
12:00 AM on August 5, 2026
Polls included
14
Latest poll
Peak Insights (R) — June 27, 2026