Chris Pappas
DEMOCRATIC
US House of Representatives (D-NH)
2019 – Present
New Hampshire 2026 SENATE FORECAST
John Sununu
REPUBLICAN
US Senate (R-NH)
2003 – 2009
2026 New Hampshire Senate Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for New Hampshire's Senate election between Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John Sununu. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share.
The 2026 New Hampshire Senate election features Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John Sununu. The seat is open and is currently controlled by Democrats. In 2024, Kamala Harris won New Hampshire by 2.8%, and Democrats are expected to retain the state's Senate seat in 2026. New Hampshire's mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters makes the statewide margin especially important in a competitive Senate race.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- Senate
- State
- New Hampshire
- Democratic candidate
- Chris Pappas
- Republican candidate
- John Sununu
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open Seat
- Forecast rating
- Likely D
- Projected vote
- 53.0% D / 47.1% R
- Projected margin
- D +5.9
- Forecast odds
- 81.4% D / 18.6% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on August 4, 2026
- Polling average
- 46.7% D / 41.2% R
- Polling average margin
- D +5.4
- Polling last updated
- 12:00 AM on August 5, 2026
- Polls included
- 14
- Latest poll
- Peak Insights (R) — June 27, 2026