Ohio15th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Ohio 15th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Ohio's 15th congressional district House election between Democrat Don Leonard and Republican Mike Carey. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Ohio 15th District House election features Democrat Don Leonard and Republican Mike Carey. Incumbent Representative Mike Carey is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Ohio's 15th congressional district by 8.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. Ohio conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- OH-15
- Democratic candidate
- Don Leonard
- Republican candidate
- Mike Carey
- Incumbent / open seat
- Mike Carey
- Forecast rating
- Likely R
- Projected vote
- 44.8% D / 55.2% R
- Projected margin
- R +10.4
- Forecast odds
- 10.9% D / 89.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —