Ohio 152026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Ohio 15th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Ohio 15th District House forecast currently gives Republican Mike Carey a 87.3% chance of defeating Democrat Don Leonard. Pollsmax projects Carey to receive 55% of the vote compared with 45% for Leonard, a projected Republican margin of 10 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Ohio 15th District House election features Democrat Don Leonard and Republican Mike Carey. Incumbent Representative Mike Carey is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Ohio's 15th congressional district by 8.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. Ohio conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.