Ohio 152026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Ohio 15th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Ohio 15th District House forecast currently gives Republican Mike Carey a 87.8% chance of defeating Democrat Don Leonard. Pollsmax projects Carey to receive 53.6% of the vote compared with 46.4% for Leonard, a projected Republican margin of 7.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Ohio 15th District House election features Democrat Don Leonard and Republican Mike Carey. Incumbent Representative Mike Carey is seeking reelection to a fourth term. This race is rated as likely Republican. Ohio conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.