Arizona 92026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Arizona 9th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Arizona 9th District House forecast currently gives Republican Paul Gosar a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky. Pollsmax projects Gosar to receive 62.2% of the vote compared with 37.9% for Sterbinsky, a projected Republican margin of 24.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Arizona 9th District House election features Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky and Republican Paul Gosar. Incumbent Representative Paul Gosar is seeking reelection to a ninth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Arizona's 9th congressional district by 2.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.