Danielle Sterbinsky
DEMOCRATIC
US Navy
Arizona9th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Paul Gosar*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-AZ)
2011 – Present
2026 Arizona 9th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Arizona's 9th congressional district House election between Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky and Republican Paul Gosar. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Arizona 9th District House election features Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky and Republican Paul Gosar. Incumbent Representative Paul Gosar is seeking reelection to a ninth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Arizona's 9th congressional district by 2.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- AZ-9
- Democratic candidate
- Danielle Sterbinsky
- Republican candidate
- Paul Gosar
- Incumbent / open seat
- Paul Gosar
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 35.1% D / 64.9% R
- Projected margin
- R +29.8
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —