California 382026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 California 38th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 California 38th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Hilda Solis a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Pedro Casas. Pollsmax projects Solis to receive 65.2% of the vote compared with 34.8% for Casas, a projected Democratic margin of 30.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 California 38th District House election features Democrat Hilda Solis and Republican Pedro Casas. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 38th congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.