California38th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 California 38th District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for California's 38th congressional district House election between Democrat Hilda Solis and Republican Pedro Casas. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 California 38th District House election features Democrat Hilda Solis and Republican Pedro Casas. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Kamala Harris won California's 38th congressional district by 15.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026. California conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Democrats overall.