Pennsylvania 122026 HOUSE POLLS
2026 Pennsylvania 12th District House Forecast:
The Pollsmax 2026 Pennsylvania 12th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Summer Lee a 91.8% chance of defeating Republican James Hayes. Pollsmax projects Lee to receive 56.7% of the vote compared with 43.3% for Hayes, a projected Democratic margin of 13.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.
The 2026 Pennsylvania 12th District House election features Democrat Summer Lee and Republican James Hayes. Incumbent Representative Summer Lee is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district by 18.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Democratic in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- PA-12
- Democratic candidate
- Summer Lee
- Republican candidate
- James Hayes
- Incumbent / open seat
- Summer Lee
- Forecast rating
- Likely D
- Projected vote
- 56.7% D / 43.3% R
- Projected margin
- D +13.4
- Forecast odds
- 91.8% D / 8.2% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on September 30, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
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