Summer Lee*
DEMOCRATIC
US House of Representatives (D-PA)
2023 – Present
Pennsylvania12th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
James Hayes
REPUBLICAN
Manufacturing Executive
2026 Pennsylvania 12th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district House election between Democrat Summer Lee and Republican James Hayes. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Pennsylvania 12th District House election features Democrat Summer Lee and Republican James Hayes. Incumbent Representative Summer Lee is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district by 18.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Democratic in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- PA-12
- Democratic candidate
- Summer Lee
- Republican candidate
- James Hayes
- Incumbent / open seat
- Summer Lee
- Forecast rating
- Likely D
- Projected vote
- 56.7% D / 43.4% R
- Projected margin
- D +13.3
- Forecast odds
- 92.2% D / 7.8% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —