New York 232026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 New York 23rd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New York 23rd District House forecast currently gives Republican Nick Langworthy a 96.3% chance of defeating Democrat Aaron Gies. Pollsmax projects Langworthy to receive 58.2% of the vote compared with 41.8% for Gies, a projected Republican margin of 16.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New York 23rd District House election features Democrat Aaron Gies and Republican Nick Langworthy. Incumbent Representative Nick Langworthy is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New York's 23rd congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.