Aaron Gies
DEMOCRATIC
College Professor
New York23rd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Nick Langworthy*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-NY)
2023 – Present
2026 New York 23rd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for New York's 23rd congressional district House election between Democrat Aaron Gies and Republican Nick Langworthy. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 New York 23rd District House election features Democrat Aaron Gies and Republican Nick Langworthy. Incumbent Representative Nick Langworthy is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New York's 23rd congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- NY-23
- Democratic candidate
- Aaron Gies
- Republican candidate
- Nick Langworthy
- Incumbent / open seat
- Nick Langworthy
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 41.8% D / 58.2% R
- Projected margin
- R +16.4
- Forecast odds
- 3.8% D / 96.2% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —