Washington 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Washington 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Washington 4th District House forecast currently gives Republican Amanda McKinney a 97.5% chance of defeating Democrat John Duresky. Pollsmax projects McKinney to receive 59.7% of the vote compared with 40.4% for Duresky, a projected Republican margin of 19.3 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Washington 4th District House election features Democrat John Duresky and Republican Amanda McKinney. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won Washington's 4th congressional district by 14.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.