Connecticut 52026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Connecticut 5th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Connecticut 5th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Jahana Hayes a 96% chance of defeating Republican Chris Shea. Pollsmax projects Hayes to receive 58.1% of the vote compared with 41.9% for Shea, a projected Democratic margin of 16.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Connecticut 5th District House election features Democrat Jahana Hayes and Republican Chris Shea. Incumbent Representative Jahana Hayes is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Connecticut's 5th congressional district by 0.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.