New York 212026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 New York 21st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New York 21st District House forecast currently gives Republican Anthony Constantino a 86.1% chance of defeating Democrat Blake Gendebien. Pollsmax projects Constantino to receive 54.8% of the vote compared with 45.3% for Gendebien, a projected Republican margin of 9.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New York 21st District House election features Democrat Blake Gendebien and Republican Anthony Constantino. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Donald Trump won New York's 21st congressional district by 5.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026.