Texas4th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Texas 4th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Texas's 4th congressional district House election between Democrat Jason Pearce and Republican Pat Fallon. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Texas 4th District House election features Democrat Jason Pearce and Republican Pat Fallon. Incumbent Representative Pat Fallon is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 4th congressional district by 29.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- TX-4
- Democratic candidate
- Jason Pearce
- Republican candidate
- Pat Fallon
- Incumbent / open seat
- Pat Fallon
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 39.0% D / 61.1% R
- Projected margin
- R +22.1
- Forecast odds
- 0.8% D / 99.2% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —