Texas 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Texas 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Texas 4th District House forecast currently gives Republican Pat Fallon a 98.9% chance of defeating Democrat Jason Pearce. Pollsmax projects Fallon to receive 61.1% of the vote compared with 38.9% for Pearce, a projected Republican margin of 22.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Texas 4th District House election features Democrat Jason Pearce and Republican Pat Fallon. Incumbent Representative Pat Fallon is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Texas' 4th congressional district by 29.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Texas conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.