Indiana 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Indiana 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Indiana 1st District House forecast currently gives Democrat Frank Mrvan a 90% chance of defeating Republican Barb Regnitz. Pollsmax projects Mrvan to receive 55.8% of the vote compared with 44.2% for Regnitz, a projected Democratic margin of 11.6 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Indiana 1st District House election features Democrat Frank Mrvan and Republican Barb Regnitz. Incumbent Representative Frank Mrvan is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Indiana's 1st congressional district by 6.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Democratic in 2026.