Kelly Thompson
DEMOCRATIC
Nonprofit Founder
Indiana3rd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Marlin Stutzman*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-IN)
2010 – 2017, 2025 – Present
2026 Indiana 3rd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Indiana's 3rd congressional district House election between Democrat Kelly Thompson and Republican Marlin Stutzman. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Indiana 3rd District House election features Democrat Kelly Thompson and Republican Marlin Stutzman. Incumbent Representative Marlin Stutzman is seeking reelection to a sixth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Indiana's 3rd congressional district by 19.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- IN-3
- Democratic candidate
- Kelly Thompson
- Republican candidate
- Marlin Stutzman
- Incumbent / open seat
- Marlin Stutzman
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 32.9% D / 67.2% R
- Projected margin
- R +34.3
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —