Jena Nelson
DEMOCRATIC
Teacher
Oklahoma5th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Stephanie Bice*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-OK)
2021 – Present
2026 Oklahoma 5th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Oklahoma's 5th congressional district House election between Democrat Jena Nelson and Republican Stephanie Bice. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Oklahoma 5th District House election features Democrat Jena Nelson and Republican Stephanie Bice. Incumbent Representative Stephanie Bice is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Oklahoma's 5th congressional district by 11.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- OK-5
- Democratic candidate
- Jena Nelson
- Republican candidate
- Stephanie Bice
- Incumbent / open seat
- Stephanie Bice
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 41.1% D / 59.0% R
- Projected margin
- R +17.9
- Forecast odds
- 3.1% D / 96.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —