Oklahoma 52026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Oklahoma 5th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Oklahoma 5th District House forecast currently gives Republican Stephanie Bice a 96.2% chance of defeating Democrat Jena Nelson. Pollsmax projects Bice to receive 58.5% of the vote compared with 41.6% for Nelson, a projected Republican margin of 16.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Oklahoma 5th District House election features Democrat Jena Nelson and Republican Stephanie Bice. Incumbent Representative Stephanie Bice is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Oklahoma's 5th congressional district by 11.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.