Ned Pillersdorf
DEMOCRATIC
Attorney
Kentucky5th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Hal Rogers*
REPUBLICAN
US House of Representatives (R-KY)
1981 – Present
2026 Kentucky 5th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Kentucky's 5th congressional district House election between Democrat Ned Pillersdorf and Republican Hal Rogers. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Kentucky 5th District House election features Democrat Ned Pillersdorf and Republican Hal Rogers. Incumbent Representative Hal Rogers is seeking reelection to a 24th term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Kentucky's 5th congressional district by 32.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- KY-5
- Democratic candidate
- Ned Pillersdorf
- Republican candidate
- Hal Rogers
- Incumbent / open seat
- Hal Rogers
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 30.0% D / 70.1% R
- Projected margin
- R +40.1
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —