Kentucky 52026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Kentucky 5th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Kentucky 5th District House forecast currently gives Republican Hal Rogers a 99.9% chance of defeating Democrat Ned Pillersdorf. Pollsmax projects Rogers to receive 76.8% of the vote compared with 23.3% for Pillersdorf, a projected Republican margin of 53.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Kentucky 5th District House election features Democrat Ned Pillersdorf and Republican Hal Rogers. Incumbent Representative Hal Rogers is seeking reelection to a 24th term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Kentucky's 5th congressional district by 32.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.