Iowa 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Iowa 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Iowa 1st District House forecast currently gives Democrat Christina Bohannan a 63.2% chance of defeating Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Pollsmax projects Bohannan to receive 50.5% of the vote compared with 49.6% for Miller-Meeks, a projected Democratic margin of 0.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Iowa 1st District House election features Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Incumbent Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Iowa's 1st congressional district by 0.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as tilt Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Iowa seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Iowa's 1st District will be critical in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.