Iowa1st District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 Iowa 1st District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Iowa's 1st congressional district House election between Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 Iowa 1st District House election features Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Incumbent Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks is seeking reelection to a fourth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Iowa's 1st congressional district by 0.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as tilt Democratic in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Iowa seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Iowa's 1st District will be critical in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.