Alabama3rd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Alabama 3rd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Alabama's 3rd congressional district House election between Democrat Lee McInnis and Republican Mike Rogers. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Alabama 3rd District House election features Democrat Lee McInnis and Republican Mike Rogers. Incumbent Representative Mike Rogers is seeking reelection to a thirteenth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Alabama's 3rd congressional district by 17.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Alabama conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- AL-3
- Democratic candidate
- Lee McInnis
- Republican candidate
- Mike Rogers
- Incumbent / open seat
- Mike Rogers
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 31.2% D / 68.8% R
- Projected margin
- R +37.6
- Forecast odds
- 0.1% D / 99.9% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —