Florida 72026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Florida 7th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Florida 7th District House forecast currently gives Republican Ryan Elijah a 67.7% chance of defeating Democrat Bale Dalton. Pollsmax projects Elijah to receive 50.8% of the vote compared with 49.2% for Dalton, a projected Republican margin of 1.6 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Lean Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Florida 7th District House election features Democrat Bale Dalton and Republican Ryan Elijah. The seat is open in 2026, giving both parties a chance to win the district's representation in the lower chamber of Congress. In 2024, Donald Trump won Florida's 7th congressional district by 1.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as lean Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Florida seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Florida's 7th District will be important in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term. Florida conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.