North Carolina8th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 North Carolina 8th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for North Carolina's 8th congressional district House election between Democrat Colby Watson and Republican Mark Harris. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 North Carolina 8th District House election features Democrat Colby Watson and Republican Mark Harris. Incumbent Representative Mark Harris is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won North Carolina's 8th congressional district by 9.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. North Carolina conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- NC-8
- Democratic candidate
- Colby Watson
- Republican candidate
- Mark Harris
- Incumbent / open seat
- Mark Harris
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 40.9% D / 59.2% R
- Projected margin
- R +18.3
- Forecast odds
- 3.4% D / 96.6% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —