Tennessee 22026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Tennessee 2nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Tennessee 2nd District House forecast currently gives Republican Tim Burchett a 99.8% chance of defeating Democrat Michaela Barnett. Pollsmax projects Burchett to receive 64.2% of the vote compared with 35.8% for Barnett, a projected Republican margin of 28.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Tennessee 2nd District House election features Democrat Michaela Barnett and Republican Tim Burchett. Incumbent Representative Tim Burchett is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Tennessee's 2nd congressional district by 21.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Tennessee conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.