Tennessee2nd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
2026 Tennessee 2nd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Tennessee's 2nd congressional district House election between Democrat Michaela Barnett and Republican Tim Burchett. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Tennessee 2nd District House election features Democrat Michaela Barnett and Republican Tim Burchett. Incumbent Representative Tim Burchett is seeking reelection to a fifth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Tennessee's 2nd congressional district by 21.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026. Tennessee conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- TN-2
- Democratic candidate
- Michaela Barnett
- Republican candidate
- Tim Burchett
- Incumbent / open seat
- Tim Burchett
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 35.6% D / 64.4% R
- Projected margin
- R +28.8
- Forecast odds
- 0.3% D / 99.7% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —