Arkansas 22026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Arkansas 2nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Arkansas 2nd District House forecast currently gives Republican French Hill a 94.6% chance of defeating Democrat Chris Jones. Pollsmax projects Hill to receive 57.5% of the vote compared with 42.5% for Jones, a projected Republican margin of 15 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Arkansas 2nd District House election features Democrat Chris Jones and Republican French Hill. Incumbent Representative French Hill is seeking reelection to a seventh term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Arkansas' 2nd congressional district by 8.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026.