Tennessee 92026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Tennessee 9th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Tennessee 9th District House forecast currently gives Republican Brent Taylor a 86.2% chance of defeating Democrat Justin J. Pearson. Pollsmax projects Taylor to receive 54.8% of the vote compared with 45.2% for Pearson, a projected Republican margin of 9.6 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Tennessee 9th District House election features Democrat Justin J. Pearson and Republican Brent Taylor. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Tennessee's 9th congressional district by 26.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Republican in 2026. Tennessee conducted mid-decade redistricting prior to the midterms, and the state's new district map benefits Republicans overall.