Wisconsin 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Wisconsin 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Wisconsin 4th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Gwen Moore a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Tim Rogers. Pollsmax projects Moore to receive 76.6% of the vote compared with 23.5% for Rogers, a projected Democratic margin of 53.1 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Wisconsin 4th District House election features Democrat Gwen Moore and Republican Tim Rogers. Incumbent Representative Gwen Moore is seeking reelection to a twelfth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Wisconsin's 4th congressional district by 23.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.