Massachusetts 12026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Massachusetts 1st District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Massachusetts 1st District House forecast currently gives Democrat Richard Neal a 99.9% chance of defeating independent Nadia Milleron. Pollsmax projects Neal to receive 66.6% of the vote compared with 33.4% for Milleron, a projected Democratic margin of 33.2 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Massachusetts 1st District House election features Democrat Richard Neal and independent Nadia Milleron. Incumbent Representative Richard Neal is seeking reelection to a twentieth term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Massachusetts' 1st congressional district by 10.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.