Michigan 12026 HOUSE POLLS
2026 Michigan 1st District House Forecast:
The Pollsmax 2026 Michigan 1st District House forecast currently gives Republican Jack Bergman a 96.6% chance of defeating Democrat Callie Barr. Pollsmax projects Bergman to receive 58.8% of the vote compared with 41.3% for Barr, a projected Republican margin of 17.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.
The 2026 Michigan 1st District House election features Democrat Callie Barr and Republican Jack Bergman. Incumbent Representative Jack Bergman is seeking reelection to a sixth term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Michigan's 1st congressional district by 10.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Republican in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- MI-1
- Democratic candidate
- Callie Barr
- Republican candidate
- Jack Bergman
- Incumbent / open seat
- Jack Bergman
- Forecast rating
- Solid R
- Projected vote
- 41.3% D / 58.8% R
- Projected margin
- R +17.5
- Forecast odds
- 3.4% D / 96.6% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on September 30, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
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- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
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