Virginia 42026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Virginia 4th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Virginia 4th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Jennifer McClellan a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Robert Murray. Pollsmax projects McClellan to receive 67% of the vote compared with 33.1% for Murray, a projected Democratic margin of 33.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Virginia 4th District House election features Democrat Jennifer McClellan and Republican Robert Murray. Incumbent Representative Jennifer McClellan is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Virginia's 4th congressional district by 8.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.