New York 222026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 New York 22nd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 New York 22nd District House forecast currently gives Democrat John Mannion a 94.2% chance of defeating Republican Kailee Buller. Pollsmax projects Mannion to receive 57.5% of the vote compared with 42.6% for Buller, a projected Democratic margin of 14.9 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Likely Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 New York 22nd District House election features Democrat John Mannion and Republican Kailee Buller. Incumbent Representative John Mannion is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New York's 22nd congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Democratic in 2026.