John Mannion*
DEMOCRATIC
US House of Representatives (D-NY)
2025 – Present
New York22nd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Kailee Buller
REPUBLICAN
Chief of Staff of the US Department of Agriculture
2026 New York 22nd District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for New York's 22nd congressional district House election between Democrat John Mannion and Republican Kailee Buller. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 New York 22nd District House election features Democrat John Mannion and Republican Kailee Buller. Incumbent Representative John Mannion is seeking reelection to a second term. In 2024, Donald Trump won New York's 22nd congressional district by 7.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as likely Democratic in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- NY-22
- Democratic candidate
- John Mannion
- Republican candidate
- Kailee Buller
- Incumbent / open seat
- John Mannion
- Forecast rating
- Likely D
- Projected vote
- 57.4% D / 42.6% R
- Projected margin
- D +14.8
- Forecast odds
- 94.3% D / 5.7% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —