Adrian Boafo
DEMOCRATIC
Maryland House of Delegates (D)
2023 – Present
Maryland5th District2026 HOUSE FORECAST
Chris Chaffee
REPUBLICAN
2026 Maryland 5th District House Forecast:
Proprietary forecast for Maryland's 5th congressional district House election between Democrat Adrian Boafo and Republican Chris Chaffee. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.
The 2026 Maryland 5th District House election features Democrat Adrian Boafo and Republican Chris Chaffee. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Maryland's 5th congressional district by 14.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.
- Year
- 2026
- Race
- House
- District
- MD-5
- Democratic candidate
- Adrian Boafo
- Republican candidate
- Chris Chaffee
- Incumbent / open seat
- Open seat
- Forecast rating
- Solid D
- Projected vote
- 69.4% D / 30.7% R
- Projected margin
- D +38.7
- Forecast odds
- 99.9% D / 0.1% R
- Forecast last updated
- 12:00 AM on July 2, 2026
- Polling average
- —
- Polling average margin
- —
- Polling last updated
- —
- Polls included
- 0
- Latest poll
- —