Maryland 52026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Maryland 5th District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Maryland 5th District House forecast currently gives Democrat Adrian Boafo a 99.9% chance of defeating Republican Chris Chaffee. Pollsmax projects Boafo to receive 69.3% of the vote compared with 30.8% for Chaffee, a projected Democratic margin of 38.5 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Solid Democratic. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Maryland 5th District House election features Democrat Adrian Boafo and Republican Chris Chaffee. The seat is open in 2026, but the race to fill it is not expected to be competitive. In 2024, Kamala Harris won Maryland's 5th congressional district by 14.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as solid Democratic in 2026.