Iowa 32026 HOUSE POLLS

2026 Iowa 3rd District House Forecast:

The Pollsmax 2026 Iowa 3rd District House forecast currently gives Republican Zach Nunn a 55.8% chance of defeating Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott. Pollsmax projects Nunn to receive 50.2% of the vote compared with 49.8% for Garriott, a projected Republican margin of 0.4 percentage points. The model currently rates the race as Tilt Republican. The forecast is updated using 100,000 simulations incorporating polling and race fundamentals. See the Pollsmax forecast methodology.

The 2026 Iowa 3rd District House election features Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott and Republican Zach Nunn. Incumbent Representative Zach Nunn is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Iowa's 3rd congressional district by 2.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as tilt Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Iowa seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Iowa's 3rd District will be critical in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.