Iowa3rd District2026 HOUSE FORECAST

2026 Iowa 3rd District House Forecast:

Proprietary forecast for Iowa's 3rd congressional district House election between Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott and Republican Zach Nunn. This page will update with a daily set of 100,000 new simulations as race fundamentals change in order to produce race odds, projected margin, and forecasted vote share. This page also includes polling averages when available.

The 2026 Iowa 3rd District House election features Democrat Sarah Trone Garriott and Republican Zach Nunn. Incumbent Representative Zach Nunn is seeking reelection to a third term. In 2024, Donald Trump won Iowa's 3rd congressional district by 2.5%, and the election for the district's House seat is rated as tilt Republican in 2026. The race will test whether Democrats can flip a competitive Iowa seat or whether Republicans can hold one of their key House battlegrounds. Iowa's 3rd District will be critical in determining control of the House for the second half of President Trump's term.